Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
